This article was first published in The National on 2nd November
Action to cut emissions has widespread public support in Scotland, and there was cross-party backing for the goal to reach net zero by 2045. Now, after a series of missed annual emission reduction targets, the Scottish Government will publish a new Climate Change Plan (CCP) which will set out how they will reduce emissions in line with a new carbon budgets system.
The contents of the CCP will be “critical” in setting out a clear pathway to a better future, according to Stop Climate Chaos Scotland policy adviser Lloyd Austin.
What is Scotland’s new Climate Change Plan?
The new CCP is a strategy document outlining how the Scottish Government intends to meet emissions reduction targets across all sectors of the economy, with a legally binding goal of achieving net zero – neutral emissions, where the carbon emitted is equal to or lower than the amount absorbed – by 2045.
Targets have been agreed by parliament in three pieces of legislation: the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009; the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019; and the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2024.
The previous system of annual emissions reduction targets have recently been scrapped, following a report from independent government advisers at the Climate Change Committee (CCC) that concluded they were “unachievable” after repeated failures to hit them. A new system which uses five-yearly ‘carbon budgets’ to guide climate action has now been agreed, mirroring methodology used in England and Wales and elsewhere in the world.
The approach involves setting statutory limits on the amount of greenhouse gases Scotland can emit over the coming decades. In this case, the budgets are broken into five-year periods – starting from 2026 and running to 2045, when the net zero target is due to be reached. Levels are measured against a 1990 baseline figure.
The budgets, which will decrease over time, are in line with CCC advice and the Scottish Government’s own assessments. This method is less prone to fluctuations than the previous approach, which could be affected by annual variations such as unseasonable weather or a global pandemic.
With the carbon budget system now in place, the Scottish Government will publish and consult on a new draft CCP – this will outline the specific actions required to reduce emissions sufficiently to meet each of the first three carbon budget targets, as well as detailing the associated costs and benefits.
The figures
The average level of emissions Scotland will be permitted to release over each five-year period are: 175 megatonnes for 2026-2030 – a 57% reduction from 1990 levels (a significant reduction from the original target of 75%); 126 megatonnes for 2031-2035 – 69% reduction; 81 megatonnes for 2036-2040 – 80% reduction; and 24 megatonnes for 2041-2045 – 94% reduction.
Emissions from international aviation and shipping will continue to be counted, and any excess cannot be ‘carried over’ from one budget period to the next. Each five-year budget will run from 1 January of the start year to 31 December of the final year.
Where are we now?
Some progress has already been made, with emissions cut by half compared to 1990 baseline levels. However, the most polluting sectors of heating, transport and agriculture have made little progress to reduce emissions.
Why do we need the new Climate Change Plan?
Extreme weather events caused by dangerous levels of planetary heating are affecting everyone, everywhere, and scientists warn this will continue to escalate if we carry on ‘business as usual’. Scotland has its part to play in protecting people and the planet. Additionally, if delivered in the right way, action to reduce emissions will not only help the climate crisis but provide real benefits to people’s lives through warmer homes, better public transport and cheaper energy bills.
The CCC laid out a series of recommendations to guide Scotland’s actions towards the 2045 goal. But Scottish climate action and energy secretary Gillian Martin has already said the new CCP will not follow that advice to the letter.
“It will not ask the impossible of people,” she said. “We will not sacrifice people’s health or wealth.
“While we welcome the UK CCC’s advice on how to stay within these limits, as they make clear, it is always for Scotland to decide whether those policies are right for us.”
She highlighted forestry, agriculture and peatland as areas where Scotland will “chart our own path”, citing the need to protect rural communities and important jobs. However, until the CCP is published it remains unclear how any lower levels of carbon reduction in these sectors will be made up for by others.
What the CCP should contain
SCCS, with a membership spanning all sectors of Scottish society, has been working on solutions that will tackle emissions whilst benefiting people at a grassroots level. The coalition is calling for urgent, effective and fair action to cut emissions and at the same time create a greener, healthier, safer and thriving society.
“And it can be done,” Austin says. Here is what’s needed.
Scotland’s new CCP should have “specific, measurable outputs, expected climate outcomes and a timeframe for implementation”.
And it must include measures that will: accelerate the clean, just energy transition; drive the shift to a fair, healthy and sustainable food system; protect and restore Scotland’s land and seas; make cleaner, greener travel choices easier and safer for everyone; decarbonise our homes to make them warmer and cheaper to heat; lead the move to a circular, wellbeing-centred economy; and build stronger resilience to climate change impacts.
The coalition has made many proposals which demonstrates how this can be achieved effectively, fairly, affordably and with maximum benefits.
Examples include:
- Introducing free bus travel and improving walking and cycling infrastructure – this would help get cars off roads, save money for travellers and improve health
- Fitting out Scottish homes with clean heating solutions and energy-efficiency measures – this will make housing warmer, tackle the blight of damp and mould and lower energy bills
- Supporting workers to move away from the collapsing oil and gas sector into greener jobs – this will create new career opportunities and attract business investment
- Protecting, restoring and creating greater natural carbon stores on land and in the sea – this will help reverse loss of species, allow important habitats to recover, capture and store climate-warming carbon, help control flooding and boost productivity for farming and fishing communities.
Austin said: “As a rich and influential nation with a proud industrial heritage, Scotland has a moral responsibility to redouble its efforts to deliver a world-leading, people-first, clean, healthy society and economy with a thriving natural environment.
“This can and must be done through popular, ambitious policies that give people –particularly those most in need – more money in their pockets, fewer daily struggles and improved opportunities for the future, while helping everyone feel more secure and healthy.”
And importantly, Scotland’s new climate policies should feel like “a great deal” for people, relieving them from high energy bills, providing economic security and protection from extreme weather events.
“We should feel like climate action is happening with us, not to us, and is being delivered and paid for fairly,” he said.
Urgent action is crucial
“With the impacts of rising temperatures, both at home and worldwide, continuing to grow, the need for strong climate action is greater than ever,” Austin said.
“Politicians of all parties must unite in a mission to safeguard the future of the planet and all who live on it. They should not give in to the naysayers and anti-climate movement – new polling shows public support remains high, even among voters associated with the far-right.
“The message of the science must be respected and acted on, for everyone’s sake.”
